Third Quarter Report 2024
The stock market this year has been positive overall, and this quarter proved to be particularly beneficial
for us. We’ll discuss the investments that contributed to our account performance.
Lumen Technologies (LUMN):
Historically, our discussions about Lumen have often been negative. However, this quarter marked a positive shift; Lumen’s stock began at $1.11 and closed at $7.30. Lumen’s turbulent past five years have been largely negative, but we recognized potential in their AI implementation services for businesses. We decided to increase our exposure by investing in their bonds rather than additional stock. We purchased $5 million worth of Lumens 7.65% bonds due 2039 and 2042 at an average price of $350 per bond, capitalizing on a substantial discount. The bonds yield $76.50 annually, meaning we’ll recoup our investment in approximately 4.5 years, offering a yield to maturity over 20%. Lumen faces significant debt refinancing in 2029-30, which concerned the bond market. We believed in their refinancing capability and invested accordingly. Post-investment, Lumen announced a $5 billion deal with Microsoft and others for AI implementation, driving bond prices to $680. We believe they’ll leverage these funds to delay their debt wall and boost investor confidence. The stock surged after this announcement, and we foresee potential for more AI contracts, which could value Lumen’s stock and bonds at over $30 billion if sold, thereby pushing stock and bond values significantly higher.
Aspen Technologies (AZPN):
We’ve not frequently discussed Aspen which provides software for utility grid and oil refinery automation. With AI anticipated to escalate energy demands due to data centers, Aspen’s technology aids in reducing carbon emissions and managing data center power grids. This positions Aspen favorably amidst rising energy demands across various sources. Their stock appreciated by 19% this quarter.
Newmark Group (NMRK):
Once a laggard, Newmark, a spin-off from BGC Partners, thrived this quarter. Specializing in global commercial real estate brokerage, including office buildings, we’re cautious about the office market’s future due to work-from-home trends. Anticipating potential office real estate downturns, Newmark is strategically hired for distressed credit management, aiming to capitalize on this sector’s challenges. For example, when a large New York bank went bust last year, it was Newmark who sold the billion-dollar loan book. We think this is a valuable business and will continue to hold the stock. NMRK was up 49% this quarter.
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B):
Our final topic, Berkshire Hathaway, saw a 12% quarterly rise. Warren Buffett, now at 94, has raised an extraordinary $300 billion cash reserve in T-bills, after trimming large positions like Apple and Bank of America. This cash, 30% of his managed assets, far exceeds his $20 billion reserve requirement, hinting at a cautious outlook or succession planning. With fewer public appearances recently, we continue our investment, recognizing that Buffett or his successor has ample liquidity for strategic opportunities. His timing for these opportunities isn’t perfect, but he is prepared should the financial markets turn ugly.
Political and Economic Outlook:
If you haven’t heard, there is an election coming up this November. We do not make changes in your account based on who wins or loses. We continue to think the most likely outcome from this election is a divided government where one party does not control the White House, Senate, or the House. Divided government means fewer changes to the economy than if there were one party in total control. As of this writing, neither party wants to balance the nation’s budget. We do view that problem to be front and center over the next 4 years regardless of who wins. When the interest expense on your debt is higher than what you spend on defense, that is a problem. For now, we will wait and see how the Federal Reserve deals with this until the politicians decide to look at it. We are not optimistic the debt problem will be dealt with anytime soon, but they can’t put this off forever.
Upcoming Events:
Please save the date for our Christmas party on December 19th at Highland Springs from 6 to 8 PM. Kelly will be sending out invitations after Thanksgiving. We appreciate your continued trust in our management of your investments and look forward to seeing all of you.
Sincerely,
Mark Brueggemann IAR Kelly Clift IAR Brandon Robinson IAR